China’s reaction to Khamenei’s death — a condemnation of the assassination as “unacceptable” — was consistent with Beijing’s general foreign policy stance opposing US unilateralism and defending state sovereignty. But China’s relationship with Iran is not primarily defined by diplomatic statements. It is defined by economics, energy, and a long-term strategic partnership that serves China’s interests in ways that no amount of American pressure has managed to disrupt.
In 2021, China and Iran signed a 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement that committed China to substantial investment in Iranian infrastructure, technology, and energy development in exchange for preferential access to Iranian oil. The deal was a lifeline for an Iran strangled by US sanctions and signaled China’s willingness to provide an alternative economic ecosystem outside the US-dominated international financial system.
Chinese companies have continued to purchase Iranian oil at discounted prices, providing Tehran with the foreign exchange it needs to keep the economy functioning. This trade, conducted in ways designed to circumvent US sanctions, has been a crucial factor in the Islamic Republic’s economic survival.
China’s interests in the current crisis are therefore clear: it wants a stable Iran that continues to supply oil and participate in Chinese-led regional economic initiatives. It does not want an Iran so destabilized that its oil production is disrupted, nor does it want an Iran that pivots toward Western engagement at China’s expense.
The succession process will be watched carefully in Beijing for signals about the new leadership’s orientation. A continued hardline posture that deepens Iran’s exclusion from Western economic systems is, perversely, in China’s interest — it increases Iran’s dependence on Chinese partnership. A significant opening toward the West might threaten China’s privileged position.