Iran’s energy strike threat against Gulf infrastructure came against a backdrop of catastrophic supply disruption on Wednesday, with Gulf oil exports already down 60 percent from pre-war levels when the Revolutionary Guards threatened strikes against facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. The threat followed an Israeli attack on the South Pars gasfield — the world’s largest natural gas reserve. Oil prices surged toward $110 a barrel as the threat compounded an already devastating supply picture.
South Pars, shared between Iran and Qatar, is central to Iran’s gas economy and had been kept off the battlefield until Wednesday. The Israeli attack — reportedly with US authorization — was the first direct strike on Iranian fossil fuel production. Washington and Tel Aviv had previously avoided this move, but crossing this line triggered Iran’s most specific and credible retaliatory threat of the war — one that came on top of an already severe global supply disruption.
Iran’s state broadcaster named Saudi Arabia’s Samref refinery and Jubail complex, the UAE’s al-Hosn gasfield, and Qatar’s Mesaieed and Ras Laffan facilities as targets for strikes within hours. Workers and residents were instructed to evacuate without delay. Asaluyeh governor Eskandar Pasalar called the US-Israeli escalation “political suicide” and declared Iran was now in a full-scale economic war.
The 60 percent drop in Gulf oil exports from pre-war levels had already been driven by a combination of drone and missile strikes on infrastructure and Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had continued to export its own crude through the strait unimpeded while preventing Gulf neighbors from doing so. European gas markets had already surged more than 7.5% on Wednesday, while oil climbed to $108.60 per barrel. Iran’s new threats raised fears of pushing the remaining 40 percent of pre-war export capacity toward zero.
Qatar’s government spokesperson Majid al-Ansari warned that attacking energy infrastructure threatened global energy security, the environment, and millions of regional residents. The context of already diminished supply made Iran’s energy strike threat all the more alarming — not just as a warning of future disruption, but as the potential final blow to a supply system that had already been severely weakened. The world’s energy markets were running out of room to absorb further shocks.