Imagining the “day after” the European Union imposes sanctions on Israel reveals a bleak landscape for what was once a thriving partnership. The relationship would be fundamentally altered, shifting from one of cooperation and integration to one defined by distrust, resentment, and damage control.
Diplomatic engagement would become formal and frosty. High-level visits would likely be curtailed, and cooperation in international forums would be replaced by mutual criticism. The EU would lose much of its access and influence in Jerusalem, while Israel would lose its primary interlocutor in Europe.
Economic ties would be permanently scarred. Even if the sanctions were one day lifted, the political risk of doing business with Israel would be seared into the minds of European companies. Israeli exporters would aggressively diversify away from the European market, seeking more reliable partners. The trust that underpins a healthy trade relationship would be broken.
Scientific and cultural cooperation, long a bright spot in the relationship, would also suffer. Joint research projects, academic exchanges, and cultural events could be caught in the political crossfire, leading to a gradual disentanglement of the two societies.
Rebuilding the relationship would be a monumental task, requiring not only a resolution to the political issues that caused the sanctions but also a concerted effort to restore trust on both sides. The “day after” sanctions would mark the beginning of a long and difficult process of managing a broken partnership, with no guarantee of a full recovery.