As Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping prepare for a crucial summit, the unresolved issue of Taiwan looms large, casting a long shadow over the entire proceedings. China’s demand for a U.S. policy shift has transformed the island from a perennial background issue into a potential centerpiece of the high-stakes negotiations.
Every aspect of the summit, from the pre-negotiations to the final communique, will be influenced by this sensitive demand. U.S. negotiators will have to decide whether to treat the Taiwan issue as a non-negotiable “red line” or as a potential bargaining chip to be used to extract concessions on trade and other economic priorities.
For President Trump, the Taiwan question presents both a risk and an opportunity. A concession could secure the “win” on trade that he desperately wants, but it would come at a high strategic cost and risk a domestic political firestorm. A firm rejection of China’s demand would be hailed by hawks but could derail the entire summit and escalate the trade war.
For President Xi, the summit is a key moment to test his American counterpart’s resolve. Pushing the Taiwan issue is a way to probe for weakness and advance China’s core national interest. Even if the U.S. does not fully concede, just getting the issue on the table and forcing the administration to deliberate it is a small victory in itself.
Ultimately, the shadow of Taiwan will force both leaders to make fundamental choices about the future of their relationship. The outcome of the summit will not only be measured in tariffs and trade volumes, but also in the language used to describe the fate of a democratic island caught between them.