As military rhetoric escalates, the search for a diplomatic off-ramp becomes more urgent, yet Vladimir Putin’s threat to attack Western troops seems to have closed one of the main doors. A negotiated peace almost certainly requires third-party guarantors, a role Putin has now explicitly rejected.
A common feature of modern peace agreements is the deployment of an international peacekeeping or monitoring force to build trust and ensure compliance. This provides both sides with the security needed to lay down their arms. The French-led plan is, in essence, a proposal for such a mechanism.
By threatening to attack any such force, Putin is preemptively vetoing a critical component of any viable peace deal. He is signaling that he will not accept a settlement that is overseen or enforced by Western powers.
This leaves very few diplomatic options. If third-party guarantors are considered “legitimate targets,” then what mechanism can be used to secure a peace? Putin’s hardline stance suggests he may only accept a settlement on his own terms, without international oversight, a condition Ukraine could never accept. This makes a negotiated end to the war even harder to imagine.