Winners and Losers in the UK’s Subsidy-Driven EV Market

The UK’s subsidy-driven EV market, which powered September’s record sales, is not a level playing field. The government’s carefully structured grant has created a clear set of winners and losers, reshaping the competitive landscape in the process.

The Winners:

1. Mass-Market Consumers: Buyers who were already close to being able to afford an EV are the biggest winners. The grant of up to £3,750 was the final piece of the puzzle for them, making their desired purchase a reality.
2. Established Automakers (e.g., Citroën, Renault, Vauxhall): These legacy brands with a strong portfolio of sub-£37,000 EVs have hit the jackpot. They benefit directly from the subsidy and are shielded from key competitors.
3. The Government (in the short term): The policy has delivered exactly what was needed: a set of positive, record-breaking headlines that demonstrate progress on the green agenda.

The Losers:

1. New Chinese Brands: These aggressive new entrants have been largely shut out of the subsidy scheme by clever regulations. They are forced to compete on an unequal footing, losing out on a huge segment of stimulated demand.
2. Premium EV Brands: Manufacturers of EVs priced over £37,000 see no direct benefit and may even lose sales to customers who “buy down” to a grant-eligible model.
3. The General Taxpayer: While some taxpayers benefit, the entire population foots the bill for a scheme that subsidizes the purchase of a new car—a major item that a large portion of the population cannot afford, even with a discount.
4. The Used Market (temporarily): The price of nearly-new EVs may be suppressed as the grant narrows the price gap between a new and used model, impacting residual values for existing owners.