President Donald Trump’s recent announcement is a masterclass in his particular brand of coercive diplomacy, where the art of the threat is the primary tool of statecraft. The entire proposal is built on a series of explicit and implicit threats aimed at allies and adversaries alike.
The threat to Russia is the promise of “major Sanctions,” a deliberately vague but menacing phrase that suggests severe economic pain to come. The threat is made more potent by being held in reserve, to be unleashed only under specific conditions.
The threat to China is the clear and unprecedented specter of 50% to 100% tariffs from the entire Western economic bloc, a move that could cripple its economy. This is a direct threat designed to force a change in Beijing’s strategic calculus.
The threat to NATO allies is more subtle but equally powerful. It is the threat of being publicly shamed as uncommitted, of being blamed for the war’s continuation, and, most importantly, the implicit threat of U.S. abandonment (“you are just wasting my time”) if they do not comply. This multi-layered use of threats is the core of his diplomatic style.